Vol. 1 No. 1

Research article

Socio-Political-Economic Co-evolution and Sustainable Development: Breaking the Impossible Trinity through Sino-Belarusian Comparative Analysis

Published 2026-06-30

  • Yuhao Gu
    • ,
  • Siarhei Lukin

Yuhao Gu
International Institute of Management and Business image/svg+xml

Siarhei Lukin
International Institute of Management and Business image/svg+xml

Abstract

This study extends the Impossible Trinity framework to sustainable development governance and integrates co-evolution theory with comparative political economy to examine the interactive mechanisms between socio-political institutions and eco-economic systems. Using panel data from China and Belarus (1990–2022), we employ the coupling coordination degree model, fixed-effects regression, and mediating effect model to quantify co-evolution trajectories and driving forces. Empirical results reveal distinct co-evolution patterns: China has established a three-dimensional driven high-quality synergy model (coupling coordination degree = 0.82 in 2022), while Belarus has developed a dual-track adaptive favorable synergy model (D = 0.67 in 2022). Government governance efficiency (β=0.213, p<0.01), political stability (β=0.185, p<0.01), and geopolitical openness (β=0.157, p<0.01) emerge as core drivers, with technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading exerting partial mediating effects (21.1% and 18.3% respectively). Both countries face the Impossible Trinity constraints of equity, efficiency, and fiscal sustainability. We propose a three-tier governance framework (basic-equity, competitive-efficiency, regulatory-fiscal balance) and an international cooperation paradigm of "institutional complementarity, technology sharing, and risk sharing" under the Belt and Road Initiative. This research provides replicable solutions for developing countries and geopolitically constrained nations pursuing sustainable development.

Keywords

Sustainable development, Co-evolution, Socio-political institutions, Eco-economic synergy, Impossible trinity, Sino-Belarusian comparison, Belt and road initiative

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